The Times-Picayune/Lucid 2016 Presidential Tracking Poll

Data represents a rolling 3-day average of support among likely voters.

The Times-Picayune/Lucid 2016 Presidential Tracking Poll collects 400 or more survey responses from likely voters each day to track voter preferences leading up to Election Day 2016. Results are released each day around 12:00 PM CT as a three-day rolling average and are among self-reported likely voters. In addition, we are also monitoring battleground states in a series of four state-specific polls. View results here

Unlike reader polls that survey respondents who happen to be reading a specific article or website, Lucid’s platform finds survey-takers through a marketplace that diversifies where respondents come from and blinds the subject matter of the survey that each respondent will take. Lucid’s findings also takes into account each survey-taker’s demographics so that the model is representative of the population at-large. By Election Day, over 50,000 likely voters will participate in The Times Picayune/Lucid Presidential Poll.

Methodology

 The Times-Picayune/Lucid 2016 Presidential Tracking poll data released daily is among a national sample of at least 400 adults each day who report both being registered to vote and likely to vote this November. Respondents are selected from among the over one million survey-takers who pass through Lucid’s technology on a daily basis. Results are post-stratified using simple survey weights to reflect national demographics and are displayed as a rolling three-day average.

All respondents on the Lucid platform have volunteered to participate in a survey and were not chosen for participation in the Presidential tracker through random selection. No sampling error can therefore be calculated.

Online polls remain relatively unproven in their application to political projections though they hold great potential as telephone polls conducted through probability sampling rise in cost and representivity becomes more challenging to achieve. This is Lucid’s first attempt to leverage its platform for such a purpose. Analysts of these results should bear that in mind. Constructive feedback is always welcome and appreciated. For full methodology on any given day click here.