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October 4, 2017

Announcing the Launch of Lucid Public Opinion Weekly

Today we launched our weekly public opinion polls that ask American adults their opinions on the President's performance and key policy issues.

Today we’re proud to announce the launch of our weekly public opinion polls.  Each week, we will use our Fulcrum Platform to ask American adults their opinions on key issues. This will create an opportunity to study public opinion on pressing current affairs and determine results through iterations of a rigorous methodology.

Several months of hard work have gone behind building these weekly political opinion polls. Programmatic sample is faster than traditional methods of collecting data that is reactive to an event. However, some academics consider online samples to be relatively unproven in political polling, therefore, our challenge was to be able to run experiments with comparable samples to examine our own rigor and representativity.

As detailed in our methodology, our results are on par with widely recognized pollsters in today’s market and representative of population distribution in each US state and the District of Columbia. These findings are important steps in the right direction and we intend to invest more time in coming months to field experiments that help us better understand our sampling methodology.

The Lucid Public Opinion Weekly has evolved from our horse race polls that lead up to the recent US Presidential election. Like everyone, we predicted the wrong winner, but we were curious to understand how we could improve the accuracy of our results. We used the same data we collected during the polls and built a multilevel regression model with poststratification. We believed by treating opinion as a function of each respondent’s demographic profile, we will be able to implement a more rigorous weighting system.

Our efforts in reexamining our own data allowed us to “predict” accurate election outcomes for Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Indeed it was our prediction model – not our survey methodology – that was responsible for the Clinton prediction in November. You can read more about our process in our election postmortem.

We will constantly improve the rigor of our model and continue to learn. Undoubtedly, this is the first step towards using real-time data in polling that can unearth unique, timely public opinion on important political issues.

If you have any questions, contact us at research@luc.id.

*Lucid conducts the survey design and analysis.