By: Eli Ackerman, Director, Polling & Partner Ops
Today, we’re thrilled to share the Times-Picayune/Lucid 2016 Presidential Tracking Poll. The results, which track back to August 1st, show a durable lead for Hillary Clinton of 5 points over Donald Trump. The trend over time is broadly in line with those published by other researchers and poll aggregators. We’re able to interview respondents about their preferred candidate during the normal course of their opt-in participation in market research surveys regarding a wide range of topics. We’ll be updating the results on a daily basis through Election Day but displaying a three-day rolling average so as not to overstate noise from a particular day.
When I interviewed at Lucid two and a half years ago and learned for the first time about the Fulcrum Exchange, I was absolutely amazed by the scope and scale of attitudinal data one could collect. Having always been interested in politics and the emerging challenges facing the traditional political polling industry, I was immediately struck by the potential opportunity for Lucid’s technology to be a resource to researchers studying public opinion.
While traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers are still thought of as a gold standard methodology in common parlance, rising costs, decreasing feasibility, and non-response bias are opening the eyes of researchers toward new tools, including online polls. Our goal here is to showcase what Lucid can provide to public opinion researchers interested in developing a literacy in this emerging landscape.
We’re not political professionals ourselves and are decidedly not experts on projecting the outcome of this year’s Presidential race. This is our first foray into building models of public opinion for ourselves and we know we have much to learn. Please feel free to share your feedback and suggestions with us as we follow the campaign together.